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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd