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During the race for the White House in 2016, Viktor Orbán emerged as the only European Union leader to back Donald Trump. This backing was expected, given the Hungarian leader's adoption of divisive ideas like population replacement concept and his suppression of media freedom. Analysts point out that Hungary's premier essentially wrote the playbook for Trump's base, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon lauding him as the "Trump before Trump".

Campaign Assistance In advance of Hungarian Elections

In recent days, ahead of pivotal polls in Hungary merely half a year off, the US president returned some political favors. While Orbán aims for a fifth term in office presiding over a country he describes as an illiberal state, his Fidesz party lags in surveys. An official trip to the US capital resulted in not just a few signed Maga baseball caps; it obtained highly beneficial campaign boosts.

Waivers and Fiscal Safeguards

Although earlier instructing European states on the need to stop all fuel purchases from Russia, and warning of sanctions against states still to purchase Russian crude, Donald Trump consented to provide a unique waiver for the Hungarian government – the biggest user in the EU of Russian petroleum. Per the Hungarian leader, the American leadership also promised to extend a fiscal buffer to Hungary's capital should it runs into any upcoming challenges, given that Brussels continues to withhold billions in EU funding to the nation due to violations of legal standards.

The specifics of this deal remain unclear. But the US president recently demonstrated his readiness to support like-minded partners after the America extended a $20bn emergency credit line to the Argentine leader, Argentina's president. Even though Mr Orbán was unable to arrange a presidential tour to Budapest, the discussions still proved a successful endeavor.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

Within EU circles, the US president's move will have further underlined the international consequences of the forthcoming polls, prior to which the opposition candidate, the rival candidate, holds a clear edge in surveys. European leaders are accustomed not to anticipate reliable policies from the Trump administration, and accept the American leader's moves to diminish the EU. Yet the waiver for Hungary – which came at the price of an pledge to purchase US gas and nuclear energy – flagrantly undermines European goals to phase out Russian oil and gas by the year 2027.

• Starting in 2022, the two biggest EU importers of Russian oil, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have provided substantial funds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Simultaneously, Hungary has repeatedly used the blocking vote to hinder advancement in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As the EU attempts to create a coordinated approach for aiding the Ukrainian government, and strengthening its hand in any upcoming peace talks, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the diplomatic table is still a key barrier.

Challenger's Position

Péter Magyar has refrained from promising a significant change on Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on domestic issues, while highlighting the need for the country to finally behave as a constructive EU member. Following persistent provocations, Brussels can only remain patient. Orbán's disregard to fundamental European principles, including the upholding of minority rights and the independence of civil society institutions, has long been a deeply troubling issue for the European Union. His persistent opposition regarding the Ukraine issue could harm its future security.