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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.